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芏喙臼率瞪鲜墙橛谡饬秸咧洌砸部梢越稳菸跏频奶匦硎乱祷蚴乔渴频囊话闫笠怠�
An economic franchise arises from a product or service that： （1） is needed or desired； （2） is thought by its customers to have no close substitute and； （3） is not subject to price regulation。 The existence of all three conditions will be demonstrated by a pany's ability to regularly price its product or service aggressively and thereby to earn high rates of return on capital。 Moreover； franchises can tolerate mis…management。 Inept managers may diminish a franchise's profitability； but they cannot inflict mortal damage。
藉由特定的产品或服务，一家公司可以成为特许的行业（1）它确有需要或需求（2）被顾客认定为找不到其它类似的替代品（3）不受价格上的管制，一家公司到底有没有具有以上三个特点可能从他是否能积极地为本身所提供的产品与服务订定价格的能力，从而赚取更高的资本报酬率，更重要的特许事业比较能够容忍不当的管理，无能的经理人虽然会降低特许事业的获利能力，但是并不会造成致命的伤害。
In contrast； 〃a business〃 earns exceptional profits only if it is the low…cost operator or if supply of its product or service is tight。 Tightness in supply usually does not last long。 With superior management； a pany may maintain its status as a low…cost operator for a much longer time； but even then unceasingly faces the possibility of petitive attack。 And a business； unlike a franchise； can be killed by poor management。
相对的，一般事业想要获致高报酬就只有靠着节省成本或是当其所提供的产品或服务供需不均之时，但是这种供给不足的情况通常维持不了多久，倒是透过优良的管理，一家公司却可以长期维持低成本的营运，但即使是如此，还是会面临竞争对手持续不断的攻击，而不像特许事业，一般事业有可能因为管理不善而倒闭。
Until recently； media properties possessed the three characteristics of a franchise and consequently could both price aggressively and be managed loosely。 Now； however； consumers looking for information and entertainment （their primary interest being the latter） enjoy greatly broadened choices as to where to find them。 Unfortunately； demand can't expand in response to this new supply： 500 million American eyeballs and a 24…hour day are all that's available。 The result is that petition has intensified； markets have fragmented； and the media industry has lost some … though far from all … of its franchise strength。
直到最近，媒体产业还拥有特许事业这三项特质，因此还能够订定侵略性的价格并容忍宽松的管理，不过现在的消费大众不断地寻找不同的信息与娱乐来源，也越来越能够接受各种不同的选择，另一方面很不幸的是消费者的需求并不会随着供给的增加而变大，五亿只美国眼睛，一天24小时，就这么多，不可能再增加了。所以结果可想而知竞争会变得更激烈，市场被区隔开，媒体产业因而丧失了部份原有的特许能力。
The industry's weakened franchise has an impact on its value that goes far beyond the immediate effect on earnings。 For an understanding of this phenomenon； let's look at some much over…simplified； but relevant； math。
媒体产业转为弱势，除了让短期盈余获利受到冲击之外，对其本身的价值将有更深远的影响，为了让大家了解这种现象，让我们来看看稍微简化但却颇为相关的数学算式。
A few years ago the conventional wisdom held that a newspaper； television or magazine property would forever increase its earnings at 6％ or so annually and would do so without the employment of additional capital； for the reason that depreciation charges would roughly match capital expenditures and working capital requirements would be minor。 Therefore； reported earnings （before amortization of intangibles） were also freely…distributable earnings； which meant that ownership of a media property could be construed as akin to owning a perpetual annuity set to grow at 6％ a year。 Say； next； that a discount rate of 10％ was used to determine the present value of that earnings stream。 One could then calculate that it was appropriate to pay a whopping 25 million for a property with current after…tax earnings of 1 million。 （This after…tax multiplier of 25 translates to a multiplier on pre…tax earnings of about 16。）
几年以来一般人都认为新闻、电视或是杂志产业的获利能力，可以永无止尽地以每年6％左右的比率成长，而且可以完全不必依靠额外的资金，也因此每年的折旧费用应该会与资本支出相当，而由于所需的营运资金也相当小，所以帐列盈余 （在扣除无形资产摊销前）几乎等于可以自由分配运用的盈余，也就是说拥有一家媒体事业，每年几乎可以有6％稳定增加的纯现金流入，同时若我们以10％的折现率来计算现值的话，等于是一次2；500万的投资，每年可以贡献100万美元的税后净利贡献（亦即约为25倍的税后本益比，若换成税前盈余本益比则约为16左右）。
Now change the assumption and posit that the 1 million represents 〃normal earning power〃 and that earnings will bob around this figure cyclically。 A 〃bob…around〃 pattern is indeed the lot of most businesses； whose ine stream grows only if their owners are willing to mit more capital （usually in the form of retained earnings）。 Under our revised assumption； 1 million of earnings； discounted by the same 10％； translates to a 10 million valuation。 Thus a seemingly modest shift in assumptions reduces the property's valuation to 10 times after…tax earnings （or about 6 1/2 times pre…tax earnings）。
现在假设条件改变，这家公司只拥有普通的获利能力，所以每年100万的获利只能上上下下起伏，这种打摆子的形式就是大部分公司的状况，而公司的获利想要有所成长，老板就必须要投入更多的资金才办得到（通常都是透过保留盈余的方式），经过我们将假设重新做修正，同样以10％加以折现，大概可以达到1；000万美元的价值，结果可以看出，一项看起来不大重要的假设变动却使这家企业的价值大幅减少至10倍税后盈余本益比（或6。5倍税前盈余本益比）。
Dollars are dollars whether they are derived from the operation of media properties or of steel mills。 What in the past caused buyers to value a dollar of earnings from media far higher than a dollar from steel was that the earnings of a media property were expected to constantly grow （without the business requiring much additional capital）； whereas steel earnings clearly fell in the bob…around category。 Now； however； expectations for media have moved toward the bob…around model。 And； as our simplified example illustrates； valuations must change dramatically when expectations are revised。
现金就是现金，不管今天它是靠经营媒体事业或是钢铁工厂得来的都一样，而过去同样是一元的获利，大家之所以看重媒体事业的原因是预期他会继续成长（股东不需要再投入额外的资金），而钢铁业很明显会落入