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e8东的信 _作者: 美 沃伦·巴菲特-第110章

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In the case of RJR Nabisco; we feel the pany's credit is considerably better than was generally perceived for a while and that the yield we receive; as well as the potential for capital gain; more than pensates for the risk we incur (though that is far from nil)。 RJR has made asset sales at favorable prices; has added major amounts of equity; and in general is being run well。 
在RJR Nabisco这个案子我们认为这家公司的债信要比外界想象中好一点,同时我们感觉潜在的利益,应该可以弥补我们要承担的风险(虽然绝非无风险),RJR资产处份的价格还算不错,股东权益增加了许多,现在经营也渐上轨道了。
However; as we survey the field; most low…grade bonds still look unattractive。 The handiwork of the Wall Street of the 1980s is even worse than we had thought: Many important businesses have been mortally wounded。 We will; though; keep looking for opportunities as the junk market continues to unravel。 
然而在我们看了市场以后发现,大部分低等级的债券还是不具吸引力,华尔街1980年代的技术比我们想象中差多了,许多重要生意都大受影响,不过我们还是会继续在垃圾债券市场中寻找好的投资机会。
Convertible Preferred Stocks可转换特别股
We continue to hold the convertible preferred stocks described in earlier reports: 700 million of Salomon Inc; 600 million of The Gillette pany; 358 million of USAir Group; Inc。 and 300 million of Champion International Corp。 Our Gillette holdings will be converted into 12 million shares of mon stock on April 1。 Weighing interest rates; credit quality and prices of the related mon stocks; we can assess our holdings in Salomon and Champion at yearend 1990 as worth about what we paid; Gillette as worth somewhat more; and USAir as worth substantially less。
我们持续持有先前向各位报告过的可转换特别股,包括所罗门7亿美金、吉列6亿美金、美国航空3。58亿美金与冠军企业3亿美金。我们吉列的特别股将会在4月1日转换为1;200万股的普通股,在衡量利率、债信与普通股的价格之后,我们可以确信在所罗门与冠军企业的投资现值应该与我们当初的成本差不多,吉列的价值比成本高,至于美国航空的价值则远低于当初的投资成本。
In making the USAir purchase; your Chairman displayed exquisite timing: I plunged into the business at almost the exact moment that it ran into severe problems。 (No one pushed me; in tennis parlance; I mitted an 〃unforced error。〃) The pany's troubles were brought on both by industry conditions and by the post…merger difficulties it encountered in integrating Piedmont; an affliction I should have expected since almost all airline mergers have been followed by operational turmoil。 
在投资美国航空时,本人在下我真是抓对了时点,我几乎是在航空业爆发严重的问题之前,跳进去这个产业,(没有人强迫我,如同在网球场上,我把它形容做是非受迫性失误),美国航空问题的发生,导因于产业本身的状况与对Piedmont购并后所产生的后遗症,这点我应该要早该预料到,因为几乎所有的航空业购并案最后的结果都是一团混乱。
In short order; Ed Colodny and Seth Schofield resolved the second problem: The airline now gets excellent marks for service。 Industry…wide problems have proved to be far more serious。 Since our purchase; the economics of the airline industry have deteriorated at an alarming pace; accelerated by the kamikaze pricing tactics of certain carriers。 The trouble this pricing has produced for all carriers illustrates an important truth: In a business selling a modity…type product; it's impossible to be a lot smarter than your dumbest petitor。 
在这不久之后,Ed Colodny与Seth Schofield解决了第二个难题,美国航空现在的服务受到好评,不过整个产业所面临的问题却越来越严重,自从我们开始投资之后,航空业的状况便很急遽地恶化,尤其再加上某些业者自杀性的杀价竞争,这样的结果导致所有的航空业者都面临一项残酷的事实,在销售制式化商品的产业之中,你很难比最笨的竞争对手聪明到哪里去。
However; unless the industry is decimated during the next few years; our USAir investment should work out all right。 Ed and Seth have decisively addressed the current turbulence by making major changes in operations。 Even so; our investment is now less secure than at the time I made it。 
不过除非在未来几年内,航空业全面地崩溃,否则我们在美国航空的投资应该能够确保安全无虞,Ed与Seth很果决地在营运上做了一些重大的改变来解决目前营运所面临的问题,虽然如此,我们的投资现在的情况比起当初还是差了一点。
Our convertible preferred stocks are relatively simple securities; yet I should warn you that; if the past is any guide; you may from time to time read inaccurate or misleading statements about them。 Last year; for example; several members of the press calculated the value of all our preferreds as equal to that of the mon stock into which they are convertible。 By their logic; that is; our Salomon preferred; convertible into mon at 38; would be worth 60% of face value if Salomon mon were selling at 22。80。 But there is a small problem with this line of reasoning: Using it; one must conclude that all of the value of a convertible preferred resides in the conversion privilege and that the value of a non…convertible preferred of Salomon would be zero; no matter what its coupon or terms for redemption。 
我们的可转换特别股算是相当单纯的投资工具,不过我还是必须警告各位,若是过去的经验有任何参考价值,大家可能还是会读到一些不正确或是误导的讯息,举例来说像去年,有几家报章杂志错误地将它们的价值与可以转换的普通股价格混为一谈,我们的所罗门特别股转换价格为38美元,根据它们的逻辑,由于所罗门普通股的现价为22。8美元,所以其可转换特别股的价值只有面额的60%,但这样的推论却有一个盲点,因为这样的说法表示所有的可转换特别股,其价值只在其所拥有的转换权利,至于所罗门不可转换的债券价值则为零,不管它所拥有的赎回条件为何。
The point you should keep in mind is that most of the value of our convertible preferreds is derived from their fixed…ine characteristics。 That means the securities cannot be worth less than the value they would possess as non…convertible preferreds and may be worth more because of their conversion options。 
大家必须特别记住的一点是我们可转换特别股大部分的价值其实是来自于固定收益的特性,这意思是说这些有价证券的价值不可能低于一般不具转换权的特别股,相反地会因为它们拥有可转换的选择权而具有更高的价值。
I deeply regret having to end this section of the report with a note about my friend; Colman Mockler; Jr。; CEO of Gillette; who died in January。 No description better fitted Colman than 〃gentleman〃 … a word signifying integrity; courage and mode
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